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The same trend is reflected in hospitalizations, which are also going up - as already discussed.
ICUs remain stable or are decreasing.
Deaths are going up - a trend also observed in recent days with ~30-45 daily deaths.
3/
Here's a look just at deaths.
Green = "with" COVID-19 (increasing)
Magenta = "from" COVID-19 (increasing)
More about these in a bit.
4/
Here's another graph with deaths, classifying them into various categories of "from", "with", or "currently unclassified". Note, in recent weeks (as expected) - many still remain unclassified (arrow).
5/
Trying to classify hospitalizations or deaths into "with" or "from" is not a new problem (it's come up multiple times since the start of the pandemic).
Nor is it a problem specific to Denmark.
6/
For example, if somebody with heart disease dies of a myocardial infarction three weeks after testing positive for COVID-19, what caused the person to die? A cancer patient four weeks after starting chemo? A transplant patient?
These issues compound and also cause delays.
8/
Back to the report. Denmark has very high vaccination and booster rates - which are *unquestionably* keeping cases/hospitalizations/deaths lower than they otherwise would be.
Booster rates remain flat though - and there are plans to cancel/pause the program shortly.
9/
This effect is important when we consider "from" vs "with" COVID-19, because we see that most of the "with" group is driven by younger people and the "from" group by the elderly.
Red = "from"
Blue/Green = "with"
11/
If we look at nursing homes we're seeing this effect especially clearly. Again, this is entirely predictable and expected when cases are (very) high.
More nursing homes having outbreaks.
More cases.
More deaths.
12/
As incidence remains high - because very little is being done to lower community transmission with no restrictions in place - we might expect cases to remain high for the foreseeable future, with a steady shift in age groups affected.
Wastewater signal is increasing.
13/
So looking at this report - and only focusing on population-based acute effects - I see several trends that concern me.
Are these acute consequences acceptable? For me, no, but politicians need to decide. Are we making decisions based on a realistic outlook? I'm not sure.
14/
Of course, there's a reason why I mention "acute" here - because all of this completely ignores potential long-term consequences of virtually everybody getting infected in a society - likely at least twice a year if no restrictions are in place.
15/
If we really want to ensure that we can get "back to normal" ASAP we need to science the shit out of this and keep innovating like there's no tomorrow.
Having long-term, realistic, data-driven, multi-pronged strategies will get us there. ππ will not.
fin/